Surveys of AI experts reveal a wide range of predictions, but many center around a 20 to 50-year timeline for AGI development. These estimates consider current trends in hardware improvements, algorithmic innovation, and data availability. However, timelines remain speculative due to the complexity of intelligence and unknown challenges that might arise.

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When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research · 2016

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evidence

Recent breakthroughs in large language models have advanced capabilities but still fall short of ...

evidence

Philosophical and ethical challenges complicate AGI development and deployment.

evidence

Current AI systems excel at specialized tasks but lack general intelligence.

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The Quest for Artificial General Intelligence: How Close Are We?

Evidence, perspectives, rabbit holes, and more

Leading AI researchers estimate AGI could arrive within the next few decades.

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